Comercio y crecimiento económico inclusivo: China y América Latina (2004-2021)
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Resumen
China se ha consolidado como una potencia global y su crecimiento ha sido notable. La influencia económica china en América Latina ha aumentado significativamente y el país es uno de los aliados comerciales más relevantes de la región. Por lo tanto, la relación comercial entre América Latina y China es estratégico. En este contexto, el estudio tiene como propósito analizar la relación entre el comercio internacional con China y el crecimiento económico inclusivo en América Latina entre 2004 y 2021, utilizando datos de 13 países de la región (Uruguay, Perú, Paraguay, Panamá, México, El Salvador, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia, Chile, Brasil, Bolivia y Argentina). Nuestra investigación es de naturaleza cuantitativa, su diseño es no experimental y su alcance es correlacional. El modelo econométrico utilizado empleó datos de panel y el estimador Newey-West para tener en cuenta la autocorrelación de primer orden en el error. Los resultados indican una relación estadísticamente significativa y negativa entre las exportaciones latinoamericanas hacia China, lo cual tiene un impacto del 10 % en el crecimiento económico inclusivo. De manera similar, las importaciones desde China hacia América Latina muestran una relación estadísticamente significativa y negativa del 5 % con el crecimiento económico inclusivo. No se identificó evidencia que respalde una relación entre la inversión extranjera directa (IED) china en los países latinoamericanos y el crecimiento económico inclusivo
Palabras Clave
International Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, Panel Data, Inclusive Economic Growth, Newey-West estimator, Latin America, China Inversión Extranjera Directa, Comercio Internacional, Datos de Panel, Crecimiento Económico Inclusivo, Estimador Newey-West, América Latina, China
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Kang, M., Park, I. y Rhee, D. E. 2017. Koreas growth-driven trade policies: Inclusive or exclusive? World Economy, 40(11), 2475-2490. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12556
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Nicita, A. y Razo, C. 2021. China: The rise of a trade titan. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). bit.ly/3rmIZ9L
Ofori, I. K., Figari, F. y Ojong, N. 2023. Towards sustainability: The relationship between foreign direct investment, economic freedom and inclusive green growth. Journal of Cleaner Production, 406, 137020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137020
Onakoya, A., Johnson, B. y Ogundajo, G. 2019. Poverty and trade liberalization: empirical evidence from 21 African countries. Economic Research Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 32(1), 635-656. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2018.1561320
Osabohien, R., Iqbal, B. A., Osabuohien, E. S., Khan, M. K. y Nguyen, D. P. 2021. Agricultural trade, foreign direct investment and inclusive growth in developing countries: evidence from West Africa. Transnational Corporations Review. https://doi.org/10.1080/19186444.2021.1936986
Samuelson, P. A. y Nordhaus, W. D. 2009. Economics. (19th ed.). McGraw-Hill Irwin.
Sadullaev, T. 2023. Possibilities and challenges of inclusive economic growth in countries. Science and innovation, 2(A2), 119-126. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202124410039
Saher, L. Y., Vakulenko, I. A., Shevchenko, K. y Bondarenko, Y. 2022. Bibliometric and retrospective analysis on economic behavior for inclusive growth. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 6(2), 102-111. http://doi.org/10.21272/fmir.6(2).102-111.2022
Silveira, L. 2017. Os lacos e tracados da China na América Latina: investimentos para integracao ou exploracao? 9th Latin American Congress of Political Science, Montevideo, 26-28 July. https://bit.ly/3YZoJrv
Solt, D. 2020. measuring income inequality across countries and over time: the standardized world income inequality database. Social Science Quarterly ,101(3), 1183-1199. https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12795
StataCorp. 2015. Stata Statistical Software: Release 14. College Station, TX: StataCorp LP.
Stiglitz, J. E. 2016. Inequality and economic growth. The Political Quarterly, 86, 134-155. https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-gjpw-1v31
Stojkoski, V., Koch, P. e Hidalgo, C. A. 2023. Multidimensional economic complexity and inclusive green growth. Communications Earth & Environment, 4(1), 130. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00770-0
The Green Finance & Development Center. (2023). About the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). bit.ly/3O4aNbQ
Topuz, S. G. 2022. The relationship between income inequality and economic growth: are transmission channels effective? Social Indicators Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-022-02882-0
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Yoruk, E., Johnston, A., Maas, G. y Jones, P. 2022. Conceptualising the transformational power of entrepreneurship from an entrepreneurial ecosystems perspective focusing on environmentally and socially inclusive economic growth. International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation and Development, 14(1-2), 192-220. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTLID.2022.121476
Zanabria, L. 2015. Las relaciones entre Perú y China. En F. Novak y J. García, La política exterior peruana en el siglo XXI: agenda y propuestas (pp. 87-100). Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. https://bit.ly/3PnFadL
Angulo-Bustinza, H., Florez-Garcia, W., Calderon-Contreras, V., Peña-Cobeñas, D., Barrientos-Moscoso, M. y Zeballos-Ponce, V. 2023. Determinants of inclusive economic growth in Latin America. WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, 20, 1-14.
https://doi.org/10.37394/23207.2023.20.96
Angulo-Bustinza, H., Arce-Larrea, G., Calderon-Contreras, V. y Flórez-Garcia, W. 2022. Peru-China international trade and its effect on inclusive economic growth in Peru 2000-2019. Decision Science Letters, 11(4), 379-390. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.dsl.2022.8.003
Anand, R., Mishra, S. y Peiris, S. J. 2013. Inclusive growth: measurement and determinants. International Monetary Fund.
Aoyagi, C. y Ganelli, G. 2015. Asias quest for inclusive growth revisited. Journal of Asian Economics, 40, 29-46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2015.06.005
Cerezo, V. y Landa, H. O. 2020. Economic growth and inequality in Asia, Europe, and Latin America, 1990-2019. Investigación Económica, 80(315), 59-80. https://doi.org/10.22201/FE.01851667P.2021.315.77565
COMTRADE 2023. Comercio internacional Latinoamérica-China, varios años y países [Database]. bit.ly/3JPQpJ4
Drobotya, Y., Baldzhy, M., Pecheniuk, A., Savelchuk, I., Hryhorenko, D. y Kulinich, T. 2021. Overcoming poverty and social inequality in third world countries (Latin America, Africa). IJCSNS International Journal of Computer Science and Network Security, 21(3), 295. https://doi.org/10.22937/IJCSNS.2021.21.3.38
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). 2021. Social Panorama of Latin America: 2020. United Nations. bit.ly/3riQi2e
Feng, Y. y Zeng, Q. B. 2021. Economic relations and the public image of China in Latin America: a cross-country time-series analysis. Economic and Political Studies, 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2021.1914414
Fosu, A. K. y Gafa, D. W. 2022. Poverty, inequality, and governance: a global perspective. En Handbook on Governance and Development (pp. 230-248). Edward Elgar Publishing.
Huang, K., Yan, W., Sim, N., Guo, Y. y Xie, F. (2022). Can trade explain the rising trends in income inequality? Insights from 40 years of empirical studies. Economic Modelling, 107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105725
International Monetary Fund. 2022. GDP, current prices. IMF DATA MAPPER [Database]. bit.ly/3PjiAwU
Jalles, J. T. y de Mello, L. (2019). Cross-country evidence on the determinants of inclusive growth episodes. Review of Development Economics, 23(4), 181-1839. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12605
Kakwani, N. y Pernia, E. M. 2000. What is Pro-poor Growth? Asian Development Review, 18(1). bit.ly/3rpk5WM
Kang, H. y Martinez-Vazquez, J. 2021. when does foreign direct investment lead to inclusive growth? International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper 2104, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13236
Kang, M., Park, I. y Rhee, D. E. 2017. Koreas growth-driven trade policies: Inclusive or exclusive? World Economy, 40(11), 2475-2490. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12556
Kraveishvili, G. y Gogorishvili, I. 2022. Research and evaluation of perceptions of inclusive economic growth in Georgia. Estonian Discussions on Economic Policy, 30(1-2), 150-171. https://doi.org/10.15157/tpep.vi1-2.22092
Kuss, M. K., Gassmann, F., & Mugumya, F. 2021. How inclusive are the local economic impacts of social protection in Uganda? European Journal of Development Research, 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-021-00488-9
Liu, Z., Hasan, M. M., Xuan, L., Saydaliev, H. B., Lan, J. e Iqbal, W. 2022. Trilemma association of education, income and poverty alleviation: managerial implications for inclusive economic growth. The Singapore Economic Review, 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590822440052
Lopes-Afonso, D., De Andrade Bastos, S. Q. y Salgueiro Perobelli, F. 2021. Latin America and China: mutual benefit or dependency? CEPAL Review, 135, 147-162. https://bit.ly/3qXHDSP
Ministerio de Comercio de la República Popular China. 2006. 2006 Statistical Bulletin of Chinas Outward foreign direct investment. Ministry of Commerce of the Peoples Republic of China. bit.ly/3O4x4oP
Ministerio de Comercio de la República Popular China. 2015. 2015 Statistical Bulletin of Chinas Outward foreign direct investment. Ministry of Commerce of the Peoples Republic of China. bit.ly/44CFHxj
Ministerio de Comercio de la República Popular China. 2022a. Ministerio de Comercio de la República Popular China bit.ly/3JKXSck
Ministerio de Comercio de la República Popular China. 2022b. 2021 Statistical Bulletin of Chinas Outward foreign direct investment. Ministry of Commerce of the Peoples Republic of China.
Nedopil, C. 2022. Countries of the Belt and Road Initiative. Green Finance & Development Center, FISF Fudan University. https://bit.ly/3PmzAbK
Nicita, A. y Razo, C. 2021. China: The rise of a trade titan. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). bit.ly/3rmIZ9L
Ofori, I. K., Figari, F. y Ojong, N. 2023. Towards sustainability: The relationship between foreign direct investment, economic freedom and inclusive green growth. Journal of Cleaner Production, 406, 137020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137020
Onakoya, A., Johnson, B. y Ogundajo, G. 2019. Poverty and trade liberalization: empirical evidence from 21 African countries. Economic Research Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 32(1), 635-656. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2018.1561320
Osabohien, R., Iqbal, B. A., Osabuohien, E. S., Khan, M. K. y Nguyen, D. P. 2021. Agricultural trade, foreign direct investment and inclusive growth in developing countries: evidence from West Africa. Transnational Corporations Review. https://doi.org/10.1080/19186444.2021.1936986
Samuelson, P. A. y Nordhaus, W. D. 2009. Economics. (19th ed.). McGraw-Hill Irwin.
Sadullaev, T. 2023. Possibilities and challenges of inclusive economic growth in countries. Science and innovation, 2(A2), 119-126. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202124410039
Saher, L. Y., Vakulenko, I. A., Shevchenko, K. y Bondarenko, Y. 2022. Bibliometric and retrospective analysis on economic behavior for inclusive growth. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 6(2), 102-111. http://doi.org/10.21272/fmir.6(2).102-111.2022
Silveira, L. 2017. Os lacos e tracados da China na América Latina: investimentos para integracao ou exploracao? 9th Latin American Congress of Political Science, Montevideo, 26-28 July. https://bit.ly/3YZoJrv
Solt, D. 2020. measuring income inequality across countries and over time: the standardized world income inequality database. Social Science Quarterly ,101(3), 1183-1199. https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12795
StataCorp. 2015. Stata Statistical Software: Release 14. College Station, TX: StataCorp LP.
Stiglitz, J. E. 2016. Inequality and economic growth. The Political Quarterly, 86, 134-155. https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-gjpw-1v31
Stojkoski, V., Koch, P. e Hidalgo, C. A. 2023. Multidimensional economic complexity and inclusive green growth. Communications Earth & Environment, 4(1), 130. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00770-0
The Green Finance & Development Center. (2023). About the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). bit.ly/3O4aNbQ
Topuz, S. G. 2022. The relationship between income inequality and economic growth: are transmission channels effective? Social Indicators Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-022-02882-0
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). 2022. Global investment trends and prospects. World Investment Report 2022, 1-51. https://doi.org/10.18356/9789210015431c006
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). 2020. Informe sobre Desarrollo Humano United Nations. https://bit.ly/3Elqx4B
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). 2021. Informe Regional de Desarrollo Humano 2021. Atrapados: Alta desigualdad y bajo crecimiento en América Latina y El Caribe. United Nations. https://bit.ly/3sHpn0D
Waniez, P. 2023. Philcarto: Logiciel de production cartographique [Software]. IGN-France.
Wang, H., Kwan, M. P. y Hu, M. 2020. Social exclusion and accessibility among low- and non-low-income groups: A case study of Nanjing, China. Cities, 101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102684
World Bank. 2022. GDP growth (annual %) China [Database]. World Bank.
World Bank. 2023a. World Exports-World GDP (Current US$ Billions) [Database]. World Bank.
World Bank. 2023b. Per capita GDP growth (% annual) [Database]. World Bank.
World Inequality Database. 2023. World Inequality Report. WID. https://cutt.ly/pwsadQjR
World Integrated Trade Solution. 2023. Latin America & Caribbean Product exports and imports to China 2020. bit.ly/44iC9QX
World Trade Organization-WTO. 2022. Trade Profile: China. WTO. https://bit.ly/3PpLmSL
Yang, Z., Vitenu-Sackey, P. A., Hao, L. y Tao, Y. 2023. Economic freedom, inclusive growth, and financial development: A heterogeneous panel analysis of developing countries. Plos one, 18(7), e0288346. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0288346
Yoruk, E., Johnston, A., Maas, G. y Jones, P. 2022. Conceptualising the transformational power of entrepreneurship from an entrepreneurial ecosystems perspective focusing on environmentally and socially inclusive economic growth. International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation and Development, 14(1-2), 192-220. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTLID.2022.121476
Zanabria, L. 2015. Las relaciones entre Perú y China. En F. Novak y J. García, La política exterior peruana en el siglo XXI: agenda y propuestas (pp. 87-100). Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. https://bit.ly/3PnFadL
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