Análisis de susceptibilidad a deslizamientos empleando el proceso de jerarquía analítica en una carretera Amazónica del Ecuador
Contenido principal del artículo
Resumen
La carretera Puyo-Tena es propensa a deslizamientos de tierra debido a la geodinámica, geomorfología y materiales geológicos de la zona (afloramientos y estratos inestables). En los últimos años, este problema ha provocado de forma persistente la inutilización parcial o total de la carretera en numerosas ocasiones. El objetivo de la investigación fue generar un modelo cartográfico de susceptibilidad a deslizamientos a partir de variables como la pendiente, las formaciones geológicas, la cobertura y uso de la tierra, así como las distancias a fallas, carretera y ríos. El grado de incidencia de deslizamientos se estimó como la combinación lineal de las variables ponderadas mediante el proceso de jerarquía analítica. La importancia de este método semicuantitativo radica en su capacidad para desagregar un problema de decisión complejo en un modelo de decisión más simple y coherente. El modelo cartográfico resultante se reclasificó en cinco categorías de susceptibilidad: muy baja, baja, moderada, alta y muy alta. Los resultados mostraron que 17 km de los 80 km de la carretera Puyo-Tena tienen una alta probabilidad a deslizamientos, lo que equivale a 21,25% de la carretera. Además, dentro de este porcentaje, se determinó que existen quince regiones con alta probabilidad de deslizamientos debido a su ubicación en zonas con fuertes pendientes, litología porosa y permeable, gran cantidad de ríos y suelos agrícolas. Para la verificación del modelo se utilizó el área bajo la curva (en inglés AUC) de la característica operativa del receptor (en inglés ROC). Los resultados de la verificación mostraron que el modelo cartográfico para el áre de estudio tiene un valor de precisión de 83,7%. El modelo cartográfico de susceptibilidad a deslizamientos permitirá tomar las decisiones pertinentes para mitigar eventos potenciales que puedan poner en peligro a transportistas, bienes materiales y residentes de la zona.
Palabras Clave
susceptibilidad, deslizamiento, proceso de jerarquía analítica, sistema de información geográfica (SIG), modelo cartográfico de susceptibilidad susceptibility, landslide, analytical hierarchy process, geographic information system (GIS), susceptibility mapping model
Citas
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Ecoamazónico (2021). Vía habilitada en el Paso Lateral.
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